The Almean Future

[Rungari]

Has Zompist put any thought into future events that might occur in Almea, and whether we'll get, say, an updated version of the historical atlas displaying these events? All I know is that I read somewhere that Verduria and Dhekhnam are likely to have a major war in the current century.

Also, what about colonial empires ? At it's current stage, Almea looks like it's at the beginning of it's colonial age, with no large empires but a few colonies here and there. And which nations are likely to become colonial powers alongside Verduria and Kebri? Shura? Cheiy? Dhekhnam?

Oh, and what do you guys (everyone but Zompist) think could happen in the next century on Almea?

[patiku]

The murtani culture in Erelae is extinguished by a human/elcari alliance; all of Eretald is incorporated into an expanding Verduria; flaids are pressured into opening up to outsiders; Dhekhnam is overwhelmed by the aforementioned human/elcari alliance; Greater Verduria and Xurno clash over the former's continued expansion into southern Erelae and possibly over the former Dhekhnam, unless refugees from Dhekhnam flee south, in which case the buffer states in the mountains may be overwhelmed and cause turmoil in Xurno; barbarians from the west make one last attempt to invade the civilized east and are soundly defeated.

[Izambri]

My bet's for Vimínia. Promising future

Yeah, I know: weird. But I'm fond of highly rural countries bordering or close to regional/continental powers.

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

Oh, and what do you guys (everyone but Zompist) think could happen in the next century on Almea?

Futurology is bad science, but good conworlding.

The one thing that is strikingly different from Earth on Almea is the Be.They alone are the wild card of Almea. There is nothing quite like them on Earth. Uytai vs. China is an obvious, with Said Bo a near Japan. But the Be, given a couple decades, will be in line with the Northern Powers, if Belesao resists just long enough the advances of Kebri.

The Clash with Dhekhnam is obvious. But ktuvok empires expand randomly; but if they overrun Eretald, they will pour in madly. The problem here is to know what will happen, but I believe that seeing them going by the South road more easily, keeping out of Verduria proper at first.

Colonization on Earth was made easier with the exchange of diseases. On Almea, this will not happen. Diseases were exchanged between Erelae and Arcel, but both regions had evolved cities for quite a long time (unlike America). Also, it seems there were less diseases to exchange. Tellinor is saved by the fact it's on Erelae proper; diseases were exchanged from a long time. At best, Tellinor will be more like South Africa, where the locals and non-locals come to live together, for better or for worse.

Other countries who will engage in colonization are easy to spot: Ceiy, Sura and Erenat. Erenat is simply a continuation of Eretald colonization. It could be as large as Verduria's (Brazil comes to mind here). Ceiy and Sura are the two big southern States who could easily engage as well. Ceiy will be quicker to adapt northern methods; they will also more easily cope with colder climates. Sura (and Jaeshim) will strengthen their link with Fananak and maybe go on their own as well. It is hard to see Dhekhnam engage in it however: ktuvok empires may be big, but they probably have something against colonization in the maritime way.

Xurno is the big question here. What will happen with them. They are Erelae's Russia, in a way. Part of Erelae, but yet a little apart in many ways. Endajue is nothing to encourage colonization. If anything, it would probably be the country of E Pluribus Unum, because that what Endajue eventually comes to. I imagine that at one point, they will catch on Eretald and fully participate within the Spidery stuff, but it will take a cultural evolution that has just started to show itself with Enirc and the Prose Wars.

[Rungari]

Colonization on Earth was made easier with the exchange of diseases. On Almea, this will not happen. Diseases were exchanged between Erelae and Arcel, but both regions had evolved cities for quite a long time (unlike America). Also, it seems there were less diseases to exchange. Tellinor is saved by the fact it's on Erelae proper; diseases were exchanged from a long time. At best, Tellinor will be more like South Africa, where the locals and non-locals come to live together, for better or for worse.

Cool theories Yiuel, and they sound pretty reasonable. Though I think there is is still a potential for large-scale colonization in Almea, even without the help of diseases. Just look at Africa in our world: it was colonized thoroughly by European powers, though the Africans had genetic resistance to Eurasian diseases, which probably has less to do with contact with Eurasia and more to do with the fact that Africa is just overflowing with all kinds of infectious tropical diseases, such as malaria. Really it was just their comparative lack of technological development that led Africa to be conquered (I think, I'm not really a genius when it comes to this kind of thing). So in this respect, I think it seems very likely that either Verduria or Kebri will eventually conquer the Rau Savanna-it's technologically backward and is sitting right next to the two most advanced powers on Almea. Maybe Nan, Vipodoh, Neinuoi/Kereminth and Gering will be also be conquered (though I honestly am not sure whether anyone really cares about Gering (Maybe the Gurdagor?))

Even then, if the big Erelaean powers figure out how to make crossing the Zone of Fire efficient and reliable, I have a feeling the Northerners are screwed badly, as there's been no exchanging of diseases, except for maybe in Bekkai, and big continents like Lebiscuri offer a lot of potential lebensraum.

Though to be honest, I'd like to see less colonization on Almea than there was on earth, as it kind of screwed everything up badly.

[Atom]

Well, we know submarines can cross the Zone of Fire. Presumably, if one flew high enough, so could planes. But those seem difficult to transport large amounts of material across.

For me, I think the main question is whether Nationalism and reunification movements we saw in our world are likely to occur on Almea.

[Rungari]

I always thought that nationalism/imperialism (and reunification) naturally comes to a nation/civilization once they develop more advanced technology than the rest of the world and get cocky.

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

Cool theories Yiuel, and they sound pretty reasonable. Though I think there is is still a potential for large-scale colonization in Almea, even without the help of diseases. Just look at Africa in our world: it was colonized thoroughly by European powers, though the Africans had genetic resistance to Eurasian diseases, which probably has less to do with contact with Eurasia and more to do with the fact that Africa is just overflowing with all kinds of infectious tropical diseases, such as malaria. Really it was just their comparative lack of technological development that led Africa to be conquered (I think, I'm not really a genius when it comes to this kind of thing). So in this respect, I think it seems very likely that either Verduria or Kebri will eventually conquer the Rau Savanna-it's technologically backward and is sitting right next to the two most advanced powers on Almea. Maybe Nan, Vipodoh, Neinuoi/Kereminth and Gering will be also be conquered (though I honestly am not sure whether anyone really cares about Gering (Maybe the Gurdagor?))

Even then, if the big Erelaean powers figure out how to make crossing the Zone of Fire efficient and reliable, I have a feeling the Northerners are screwed badly, as there's been no exchanging of diseases, except for maybe in Bekkai, and big continents like Lebiscuri offer a lot of potential lebensraum.

Though to be honest, I'd like to see less colonization on Almea than there was on earth, as it kind of screwed everything up badly.

Africa and most of Asia was "colonized", but except for Algeria and South Africa, it never really amounted to much Europeans moving in. It was more in the realm of subjugated populations that eventually kicked out the invaders. And in Algeria, it ended with a kicking out that still has consequences today in both countries. Compare with America, where there was more of colonization process going on (which resulted in European countries in the temperate zones, and Intercultural countries in the tropical zones). So at best, we will have an South Africa-style colonization in Tellinor, and Asia-style colonization in some parts of Arcel; nothing like American colonization. This can leave however the world with two rivals in language, Verdurian and Kebreni.

The North is Almea's America, but it's even worse. The Old Bekkayins are lucky to have survived at all; the North is doomed if anything happens to cross. And Lebiscuri is right at the right place for all colonizing attemps of the temperate cultures, while Nan and the Be can share Curym. The language that will create its own United States or its populous equivalent will win the language war.

For me, I think the main question is whether Nationalism and reunification movements we saw in our world are likely to occur on Almea.

They are occuring. In the North, Kebri is a hotbed of nationalism. Its non-Eastern language could also be an incentive.

Eretald itself is still non-nationalist, but the very opposition between Ctesifon and Verdurian prevents it completely. You also have the religious division that prevents any religiously based nationalism. If anything, Eretald is nothing like Europe, and more like India. You will have regional pride, but there is a common civilization behind everything, Eretaldesque, even Eledat. The future of Eretald will probably be something Federative like the European Union, but culturally more like India.

In the South, however, you can clearly see a few Nation-States. Ceiy is Almea's Ur Example; you have here a country clearly defined by a common culture, around the Ceiyu Senate, and a strong identity as a group. Sure, they have two languages, but this did not prevent the formation of common national identities (Switzerland). Skouras is also following the same path. Heck, the whole region between Gurdago and Jaesim as just cultural groups turning into political states. Xurno itself is turning into a big China, but with a culture that will catch on more quickly; its afterthought invasion of Ceiy is related to a common Xengiman identity (which actually failed because of Ceiyu identity). Actually, the only non-example would be Belsai, if it wasn't exactly a Erelae-style Switzerland, turning it into Almea's most triumphant example. Basically, nationalism is felt everywhere in Southern Erelae.

I always thought that nationalism/imperialism (and reunification) naturally comes to a nation/civilization once they develop more advanced technology than the rest of the world and get cocky.

Fun fact, they don't. "Nationalism" mostly kicks in with strong common institutions. Japan wouldn't be one country if it wasn't for Oda-Toyotomi-Tokugawa unification process; Edo period built a strong State out of Japanese feodalism. Tokugawa was bound to win; his Edo stronghold is almost a natural center for Japan as a whole because of the Kanto plain. But if Kanto didn't exist, Japan could be like Yougoslavia.

In Canada, compare French-Canada, Quebec and Acadia. French Canada has no common institution; it had nothing to garther a common identity. Quebec however left a huge chunk of it with a common institution. Quebec, as a group identity, evolved from it. (It would be anachronistic to speak about Quebeckers or a Quebecker culture before 1867. And the Patriots have almost no relations to current Quebec nationalism.) Acadia has a distinct history, centered around its various colonies dominated by the British many years before the Seven Year War. Their untimely deportation led to a world diaspora, but a big chunk of it eventually settled the Acadian region in New Brunswick. But the very fact they have to share its political government with the Loyalists centered around St John and Fredericton puts any kind of national identity on hold in terms of autonomy.

Compare now with Switzerland. If anything, it is the antithesis of nationalism. Swiss people are proud of Switzerland (and damn they should be), but it's a country filled with strong regionalisms that leave many Europeans wonder what's really happening there. But actually, they are very much the result of another kind of institutions, which itself gave rise to that curious country in a world where Nation-State is almost a god-sacred right. If anything, the Nation-States of Europe are not Nation-States; they are empires, hidden behind the curious idea that sharing a language (or a language family, like France) turns it into a natural political entity that should be unified. Today, the European Union is an extension of the idea of a larger central authority; but to succeed as a State, it must let go of the Nation-State excuse, turning itself into a large-scale Switzerland, which might, eventually, lead to a common European identity. Basically, it's not nationalism that kicks in, it's imperialism; nationalism is simply a reaction to it today, where we might want more localized institutions that are more aware of the locals (easier to identify when their language itself is quite different).

[Rungari]

So what you're saying is that since southern Erelae is much more imperialistic than Eretald, in the long run they are more likely to build up powerful colonial empires than Eretald, despite Verduria and Kebri having the headstart?

[Izambri]

Concerning the expansion of Verduria, I bet the first countries to be annexed will be Krasnaya and Isiza. Dobray, the capital of Krasnaya is an important city, a key place in central Eretald, placed where the Aranë meets the Svetla. What's more, the country follows the revision of Verdurian law. On the other hand, Isiza has financial problems, it seems, and a future annexation to Verduria could be a solution.

Lácatur could be annexed too. Despite being a poor region it could play an important role in maritime trade, so an occupation of the littoral as far as Cana could be a profitable and advantageous enterprise, in my opinion. Anyways, we'll se what happens with Abend Monteneon and his plan.
It would be interesting to see how reacts Mútkün to such occupation, and if that could imply a Dekhnami invasion of Eretald.

To the east Verduria could take the cities of Gödo and Mud'uca, to assure its control of the lower Serea, and think about controling the Kara Desert, but that won't happen until Dekhnam invades Eretald or someone discovers the properties and possible uses of Kara oil.

I expect the formal annexation of Bažra and Guaya by Ctésifon, perhaps as a reaction to Verdurian future annexations. The occupation of Guaya could be problematic, though, if Čuneona is still alive and retains her powers.

I can't imagine what would happen with Lapiri and Guaya in case of a Dekhnami invasion! XD

[Atom]

I think Eretald will start yo unify further, if only in fear of Dheknam, but probably in a few groups. I think a lot of the really small states are just not viable, and as trade further binds Eretald together, I doubt they will survive. Also, once the barbarians of the plain are finally defeated, as they are likely to be, that whole area will be divided up among various Central speaking states. The karazai will probably lose to the Xurno, if not violently, then they will be slowly tied through trade.

The Qaraus is interesting. Dheknam has a strong desire not to be encircled, so they will probably try to stop Verduria and Kebri from continuing to expand.

Gurdago has probably lost it's final empire.

[Karavinka]

Everyone seems to think Verduria and Dhekhnam will clash. Well, what if they don't?

As far as I can see, there is one nation which harbors enmity against both these powers, which is Ismahi. I can certainly imagine a Raizumi-Kebropol alliance to recover the "lost" territories of Azgami and Denosovic simultaneously; what would Verduria and Dhekhnam do? (Raizumi is sick of Verdurians bullying them around; a nationalistic movement or revolution could galvanize the Ismahin, and that would indubitably lead to call for reconquista.) Ally with each other to crush Raizumi? That's rather unthinkable, and the diplomatic position of Avela would be exceedingly precarious; it would want to see the Dhekhnami client-state Azgami gone, but aiding Ismahi in the process would upset Verduria which has its own client state under siege. A diplomatic meltdown.

More complications could come from the southern powers. The propagation of Endajue in southern Eretald could be used as a political leverage of Xurno, in disturbing the centuries-old Verdurian hegemony in the field. There are surely those elements who would love to bring in distant Xurno to "balance" the power politics of Eretald. You know, history can go quite weird. What if Ctesifon becomes center of the newfound faith in Endajue in Eretald? After all, they too are probably getting tired of Verdurians telling them what to do. (Or... think of the Revaudo Viminians who won't back down in the field of battle or yield to a compromise. Uh, actually pretty terrifying.)

Will Jaesim or other Tzuro-Skourene powers attempt to recover their Arcelian influence? Probably, but the presence of the Iceki Tej will certainly complicate the matter. We don't know too much about the Iceki Tej, but it's certainly not orthodox to the eyes of the Tzuro in Erelae. Well, when it comes to the Jippirasti realms, let's not forget that the Demon Realm has reduced two Lenani states, Sejnihal and Gesh, to their client states. Depending on the developments in the Jippirasti realms, Dhekhnam's primary frontier may not be to the West in the future.

It's quite interesting that the Le are said to have the best canon technology to date. If anything happens in Eretald, I have no problem imagining Le blockading and capturing the Kebreni colony of Pahsau, and since the Kebreni language is quite well understood there, it wouldn't be surprising that workshops in Janse would start copying the Kebreni technology from captured equipments or ships. The same could be said of Verduria: I don't see any reason that Nyanese and/or Siadese failing to capture Jebruk when a conflict occurs in Eretald. Will Verduria be able to afford to send a fleet to Jebruk when it is engaged with Dhekhnam, stuck in a quagmire with Endajuists in southern Eretald, or trapped in a diplomatic tightrope with Ismahi/Dhekhnam/Avela/Kebri? I doubt it, and based on what we know of the trade routes, both Pahsau and Jebruk are precarious choke points for Kebropol and Verduria. It's very possible that neither really becomes something like England and France in our world. (Even in our world, the earliest colonial empires of Portugal and Spain kind of fell back in the race later on.)

But for me, the presence of Gurdago is probably the one that's going to tip the balance the most. Whatever happens in the rest of the world, it's going to try to get a Fourth Empire for an obvious reason that it's a polar metropolis that can't sustain itself too well.. but where? Looking at the map, Gurdago is almost equidistant to Eretald, Arcel and ... Tellinor. If anything upsets Verduria or it loses Jebruk, there is no reason why Gurdago will not step into Tellinor. Who knows? Maybe for the first time in history the Gurdagor could pretend being "liberators." (And for the record, pale Gurdagor (and other Xurnese/Skourenes) look more similar to Tellinorese than darker Verdurians. Maybe they could even play the trick that they're the "same kind of people"...like the Japanese did during the WW2 against Europeans.)

One of the things that makes Almea interesting to me is that there is quite a lot of different but yet plausible ways to disrupt the current balance. Is Dhekhnam really the lone power without friends? Why would it need to be just because it's a ktuvok empire? An Arcelian nation, without the negative experiences with them, could strike a deal with it if profitable. If the Be and the Nanese come in contact, will they find each other more "alike"? Adding Be gunpowder to Nanese shipbuliding could yield something formidable. And sooner or later, Neinuoi's oil fields will dominate much of the international scene, and it seems that Erelaeans are kind of geographically disadvantageous compared to Arcelians, who are more proximate to Neinuoi.

Well, short: I don't expect Verduria to be the dominant power in future Almea. I can think of several contenders to the "top" Almean nation in the next century or two.

[Rungari]

The Spain/Portugal analogy to Verduria and Kebri seems very plausible, especially considering that the colonial age has only just begun. Personally, I think Shura is bound to become a great maritime power, perhaps analogous to Britain in our world.

[BGMan]

Has Zompist put any thought into future events that might occur in Almea, and whether we'll get, say, an updated version of the historical atlas displaying these events? All I know is that I read somewhere that Verduria and Dhekhnam are likely to have a major war in the current century.

Also, what about colonial empires ? At it's current stage, Almea looks like it's at the beginning of it's colonial age, with no large empires but a few colonies here and there. And which nations are likely to become colonial powers alongside Verduria and Kebri? Shura? Cheiy? Dhekhnam?

Oh, and what do you guys (everyone but Zompist) think could happen in the next century on Almea?

Here's my take:

Dhekhnam isn't going to start any war, unless they industrialize. At the moment, Dhekhnam has very few cities, and presumably its industry is nonexistent versus the Eretald powers (Verduria, Kebri, and Erenat). They do have an extensive population base and a large area. It's easy to compare it to Russia... more of an annoyance than anything, a backwater trying to exert its influence but profoundly weak otherwise. Kebri and Erenat are too wealthy and advanced to be really threatened by Dhekhnam at the "present" (3480), any more than the Netherlands and England were in the 1600s and 1700s.

(Incidentally, I am rather partial to thinking of Dhekhnam as like Russia... especially with the latest Crimea business, plus Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and Belarus. Of course, the correspondence would be even closer if there was a clutch of Eynleyni-speaking countries that were adamantly anti-Dhekhnam, analogous to Poland and the Czech Republic. Sarnae is more like Moldovan-speaking Transnistria in this regard, but, of course, much bigger.)

I would expect there to be a scramble for the Northern Hemisphere once reliable steamships come online, which I'd expect to happen in the not-too-distant future. I agree with Yiuel's take on what will happen in the rest of the world, with Arcel, west Erelae, and in particular the Northern Hemisphere, whose natives (except for the Bekkai) are obviously more vulnerable to a smallpox-type mass takeout.

There's one aspect that has been left out: demography. What are the dynamics of population change in Eretald and elsewhere? Are populations growing (most of Europe in the 1800s), stagnant (Europe in the 1900s), or in decline (Europe now)? Naturally, colonies will be likelier if the population of the continent is growing. Not necessarily the sending country itself; France was stagnant in the 1800s but still established colonies in Africa due to competition with the other European powers. Nevertheless, demography for the country is important as far as emigration goes: France sent very few immigrants to the Americas compared to other countries in Europe. And if you think about it, Europeans did end up seizing all the temperate lands worldwide, except for North China, Korea, and Japan, which were already densely populated and impervious to European diseases.

Back to Dhekhnam: if it started to rapidly industrialize along with showing a rapid population growth, like Germany in the late 1800s or Russia in the early 20th century, I'd expect eventual war with Eretald, or its other neighbors, to be a given.

I do like Karavinka's idea about Gurdago elbowing in to Tellinor. But again, that would require it starting an expansion in population and wealth, rather than sort of sitting on its hands. Xurno and Endajue... it seems rather Eastern to me, so I'd imagine them to have a more Chinese attitude, with infiltration and settlement in southern Eretald rather than out-and-out colonization.