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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:59 pm 
Smeric
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Shifting back to the US: super glad that Al Franken is going to resign

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:28 pm 
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mèþru wrote:
[comments on the morality of Jerusalem being capital]/quote]
Quote:
I'm not going to talk about the morality of Jerusalem being capital


Hypocrite.

EDIT: specifically, the hypocrisy of inflicting your views on the subject on us, while announcing that you are tired of hearing our views so we shouldn't respond. Sorry, but no. If you don't want to talk about a subject, don't raise the subject (you didn't just enter the discussion, you actually raised a subject (the morality of the claim itself, rather than the wisdom of recognition) that we weren't even talking about). If you do want to raise the subject, you have to be willing to defend your claims and hear the other side of the debate. This "you have to listen to me but don't make me listen to you"/"here's what I think but don't tell me what you think because I don't want to talk about this subject I just introduced into the conversation" bullshit is just hypocrisy.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:36 pm 
Smeric
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Let's not forget he used to love arguing about it, but then he kept losing the arguments because the facts he wanted to use weren't actually in his favor (and sometimes just plain false). He doesn't want to engage with reality, because his personal moral and political values are actually at odds with what he wants for Israel. That is, methru is a good person deep down, but he doesn't want to face the fact that his Zionism is supremacist in nature.

A few comments on Jerusalem in response to both Soap and methru:
-If it's not our business, then why not stay out of it, as we have been doing up until now?
-I want to reiterate the fact that unlike most of Israel proper, Jerusalem is disputed territory, parts of it having switched hands, and two separate political entities recognize it as their capital. It's not just contentious because it's precious to Palestinians; it's contentious because it's a core, unresolved issue in the conflict.
-There's no reason for a 'united' Jerusalem, unless you're Jewish. East Jerusalem has hardly been integrated into Jerusalem, and in 50 years the city has done almost nothing to work towards integrating East Jerusalem, other than building Jewish neighborhoods AROUND it. It's a very Palestinian area, receiving aid and support from the Palestinian Authority, barely any infrastructure connecting it to west Jerusalem, and the Palestinians there do not have Israeli citizenship. So why does Israel even want it? Because East Jerusalem holds the Old City -- which, by the way, has more holy sites for Palestinians than it does for Jews. The Western Wall might be the holiest site for Jews, but let's not forget that the Church of the Holy Sepulchre is the holiest site for Christians.
-The Trump administration has been touching base with Israeli authorities on the Jerusalem issue all year. If they didn't want it, they could have stopped it.
-Israel definitely bares much of the responsibility for whatever violence the move has inspired. Nobody made Israel invade, conquer, and annex East Jerusalem. Nobody made Netanyahu obstruct the peace process that Rabin began. Israel has had nearly 25 years to come to an agreement with the Palestinians. Nobody is making Israel move unilaterally. Don't play the victim, nobody is going to feel sorry for you, except for other Zionists and Christian Zionists.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:49 am 
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I'm not being hypocritical. I'm stating my views and moving on to Al Frankenstein. All I said was I'm not going to argue, other people can argue as much as they want. So have... fun? I don't know.

P.S. This post sounds way more dramatic than I intended, but I can't phrase it better.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:27 pm 
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Just an update on Roy Moore:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12 ... idate.html

This doesn't mean much, other than the resources armchair detectives on social media were right and the msm waswrong about the details. Roy Moore seems to have still signed the yearbook. With just 3 days left, it may make little difference. Otoh:he's up by 5 pts over yesterday on
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
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Now that Mueller is done with the Russia probe, dems are searching for other reasons to overturn the election. Bernie Sanders is bringing up the Pussytape scandal, essentially saying that since al Franken resigned, so should Trump. To that I say, the people of the USA elected Trump knowing what he was and what he did. If Moore pulls out a win in Alabama, the same should also apply to him.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:55 pm 
Smeric
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Soap wrote:
Now that Mueller is done with the Russia probe,


Where'd you hear that that's not true. Unless you are saying that Trump will fire Mueller and the Rs in Congress will do nothing about it, which almost is certainly true (it will probably happen on Christmas, in an address to the nation, he will use his famous tagline, "you're fired"). But your phrasing suggests that Mueller has already voluntarily ended the investigation, a claim I can find no evidence for.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:59 pm 
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I thought the Mueller probe is actually making a lot of progress.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:56 pm 
Smeric
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Likewise, this "Mueller is done" thing is certainly news to me. Seems like the investigation is just warming up.

Also, is it certain that Moore signed her yearbook? Or are we just relying on her claims for that?

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:44 am 
Smeric
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A handwriting analyst has concluded that it's Moore's handwriting.

As for the portion Ms. Nelson wrote, she says she added that to remind herself who he was and where/when it happened, which seems plausible. It doesn't look like she made any effort to make her handwriting look like Moore's. She did read both parts aloud though, without making clear that the second part was her notes.

This probably won't matter though and Nelson's notes are enough to dash whatever distant hopes of a Jones victory there might have been.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:39 pm 
Smeric
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You mean she claims a handwriting analyst confirmed it was Moore's handwriting while continuing to refuse to hand over the sample to a third party analyst, and on the same day she admits the date she added was her own handwriting. At the same time, people are glossing over the fact that Moore's alleged inscription includes "Christmas 1977," and I'm not sure she ever claimed that "12-22-77" wasn't her handwriting.

I don't think it effects the outcome anymore, anyway. The polls show that the vast majority of voters in Alabama are just ignoring the scandal -- whether they disbelieve it, don't think it's a big deal, or what have you.

Really the race is too close to call, with Moore at a consistent advantage. But it's erroneous to take consistent advantage the same way you would take a landslide lead in the polls. It's so close that if the Democrats can get out the vote, while the Republicans stay at home, Doug Jones will win. In other words-- if we have another Virginia, it's looking like Jones wins.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:58 pm 
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So glad to see Trent Franks resign. He was one of the cosponsors of that awful HR 2796.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:26 pm 
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Mueller isnt going anywhere, nor should he, because his job is to find out if there's a connection, and if it turns out there isnt, he'll have done his job. If anything it's harder to prove a negative than a positive, so the longer Mueller stays on, the more likely it is that he's going to eventually come out and say that the Russia probe was a giant waste of time but that at least we no longer have to deal with the burning questions.

Mueller has been plumbing away for about 6 months now, maybe seven ... and before that, Comey had been investigating the same issue for about a year, stretching back well before the election since it wasnt clear at the time who would be the winner of the election. So if theyre just getting warmed up, when will they be done? At this rate Trump'll be out of office (term expired, not impeached) before theyre done looking under everyone;s rug for more evidence of collusion with the Russians.

After Trump's surprise victory over Clinton/Johnson/McMullin, we heard claims that Trump had won only because the Almighty Russians had chosen to intervene in the internal affairs of America's helpless, fragile, emerging democracy and deliver the reins of power to their handpicked puppet, Donald Trump. First we heard that the Russians had hacked the election, and that only Donald Trump's campaign had the power to allow Russian hackers entry into the voting machines, and that therefore this proved that Trump had colluded with Russia and that Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner of the election.

Although this claim has been repeated many times, the last instance by a mainstream politician that Im aware of is Maxine Waters (D-CA) back in February. Then the claim became that the Russians had hacked the DNC, again relying on Trump to give them entry, since it wouldnt be collusion if they had accomplished the hack independently and then posted the info on wikileaks for all to see. Since then the goal has been repeatedly and dramatically broadened, to include claims with only the most distant connections to the original goal. For example, in recent months, we've heard:

*Mike Flynn (D), an Obama-era appointee, turned Trump in the middle of 2016 and decided to help his campaign, met with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak about 2 months after the election to discuss sanctions that had just days earlier been placed on Russia by the Obama administation.
*Paul Manafort had worked in Russia's enemy, Ukraine, during the Bush administation and then ten years later signed on to work for the Trump campaign.
*George Papadopoulos, another Trump campaign employee, had before the election met with diplomats from various nations around the world, and among the many nations whose diplomats he spoke to was Almighty Russia.
*Facebook, whose CEO supported Hillary Clinton and has considered running for president as a Democrat in 2020, allowed businesses based in Russia to run $150,000 worth of ads during and after the 2016 election, promoting both left- and right- wing viewpoints. These ads accounted for about a fiftieth of a percent of all advertising revenue during the election season.
*Members of the Trump campaign had been reading stories posted on Wikileaks, whose founder, Julian Assange, has visited various countries in the world, possibly including Russia.

Where in this mess do we find even a shred of evidence that Russia interfered in our election, or that the Trump campaign even attempted to get them to interfere? I'd say that the Russia probe ended long ago, but Mueller is just now moving on from subjects that are related to Russia in the most tangentially imaignable way to subjects that have nothing to do with Russia at all, such as some sort of money laundering claim involving Deutsche Bank. If that can somehow be connected to the original claim of Russia interfering in the election, the winding path must be even longer than those of the claims presented beforehand, because I havent heard even the claim that theyre related.

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷
Meanwhile, you have sensationalist media shooting themselves in the foot over and over with claims such this:

*On ABC's The View last week, a woman rushed out from backstage with piece of paper claiming that ... what was it? ... I dont even remember, but the author of that supposed bombshell was suspended by ABC News when the story was quickly proven false.
*Another claim going around recently was that the 13-month-old story about Trump campiagn workers reading Wikileaks had had an as-of-yet unnoticed detail: that the Trump campaign had actually had access to the leaks a few days before everybody else did, which meant that Wikileaks had been cooperating with them and therefore Russia also had since Wikileaks is owned by The Almighty Russians. But then it turned out that the news anchor had misread the date on the report and the original story from last year was correct after all and the Trump campaign workers were just reading what was alreayd publically available, like everyone else had.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:21 pm 
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Soap wrote:
Mueller isnt going anywhere, nor should he, because his job is to find out if there's a connection, and if it turns out there isnt, he'll have done his job.

That's not his job. He's legally required to investigate any criminal acts that his investigation uncovers evidence of. Theoretically this can go on forever. This is why, for example, Clinton was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal, even though the special inquiry was originally about Whitewater. In the case of Mueller, his appointment very specifically did not even specify a starting point crime for him to investigate: he has carte blanche.
Quote:
Mueller has been plumbing away for about 6 months now, maybe seven

In other words, barely any time at all. In the case of Watergate, there was a year or so of reports and ad hoc investigations, and then a year and a quarter of investigation by the special prosecutor until Nixon resigned. But the investigation then continued for another 6 years. The initial report of the Tower Commission into Iran Contra took more than a year, and then the investigation continued for another 6 years.
In the case of Whitewater, there were 2 years of pressure and ad hoc investigations before the appointment of an investigator. It took five years of investigation to reach its peak (an impeachment referral and grand jury hearings), and another three years until the investigation was concluded, by which time it had shifted from investigating land deals to investigating fellatio (15 people were charged with crimes and the Governor of Arkansas was removed from office.
Even the Plame investigation, which ended up doing very little, took 4 years to do it.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:45 pm 
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Salmoneus wrote:
In the case of Whitewater, there were 2 years of pressure and ad hoc investigations before the appointment of an investigator. It took five years of investigation to reach its peak (an impeachment referral and grand jury hearings), and another three years until the investigation was concluded, by which time it had shifted from investigating land deals to investigating fellatio (15 people were charged with crimes and the Governor of Arkansas was removed from office.

Fivethirtyeight.com actually did a very good graphic illustrating this (no idea why it's displaying so huge-ass):
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:55 am 
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tiramisu wrote:
-The Trump administration has been touching base with Israeli authorities on the Jerusalem issue all year. If they didn't want it, they could have stopped it.

This.
And in addition, Bibi has now gone and demanded from the EU to recognize Jersualem as capital as well. That doesn't sound like "actually, if Trump had asked us, we'd have counselled against it."


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:32 pm 
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hwhatting wrote:
tiramisu wrote:
-The Trump administration has been touching base with Israeli authorities on the Jerusalem issue all year. If they didn't want it, they could have stopped it.

This.
And in addition, Bibi has now gone and demanded from the EU to recognize Jersualem as capital as well. That doesn't sound like "actually, if Trump had asked us, we'd have counselled against it."

Frankly, the latter point is more convincing than the former. Even the USA's own diplomats were caught flatfooted by the announcement. I've never seen our foreign policy in such a complete shambles before.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:42 pm 
Smeric
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linguoboy wrote:
no idea why it's displaying so huge-ass

I think I've noticed that happening on this forum before when I try to post a picture, just in general. (Idk why, either).


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm 
Osän
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Try changing the "w" argument in the url. That should let you set the width to whatever you want.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:11 pm 
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:22 pm 
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Roy Moore loses the election !

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:47 am 
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Congratulations, America! One time out of a hundred you can accomplish the bare minimum.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:29 pm 
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Hydroeccentricity wrote:
Congratulations, America! One time out of a hundred you can accomplish the bare minimum.

As multiple sources have pointed out, we really owe this victory to Black women, who turned out in force to reject Moore. They make up only 12% of the population but according to exit polls were 17% of voters and 98% of them voted for Jones. Fortunately, this doesn't seem to have been an accident; the DNC learned enough from Clinton's loss to put almost all the money earmarked for this race into GOTV efforts for Black and young voters. (60% of voters under 30 backed Jones.)

Predictably, White women once again put party above predation: Two-thirds backed Moore. Reportedly, many said that his stance on abortion was decisive, but overall Black women are even more anti-abortion than White women and yet they were able to set that aside in order not to send another White supremacist kook to Washington.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:31 pm 
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I don't know that we can read too much into these results yet. I suspect there will be plenty of cries of "voter fraud", especially because of the reported large turnout of black people. This (along with the obvious effect black people had on the election) will lead to stepped-up efforts to systemically deny the vote to black people, and potentially to other majority-Democrat demographics and areas (since we all know geography votes in our elections).

If anything, this may light a fire under the Republicans to get in place their fix for the 2018 election even sooner and with more force.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:32 pm 
Sanno
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linguoboy wrote:
Hydroeccentricity wrote:
Congratulations, America! One time out of a hundred you can accomplish the bare minimum.

As multiple sources have pointed out, we really owe this victory to Black women

I don't think this sort of factional powerplaying is particularly helpful. In reality, in any close election, the winning candidate always owes their victory to everyone who voted for them.

In this case, Jones made a lot of calls not to target the black vote too heavily - refusing to campaign alongside Obama, for example, and campaigning alongside Biden instead. And that seems to have paid off for him.

The uncomfortable fact is that the black vote can never win an election in Alabama. Yes, there was a high black turnout: 29% of the voters were black. Great. But 28% of the voters were black in 2012, and 27% were black in 2008. Jones succesfully didn't provoke the black vote to stay at home, sure, but the black vote regularly turns out in similar numbers, and gives a similarly disproportionate share of their vote to Democrats, time after time in Alabama, and they always get thrashed.
From the point of view of Democratic campaigners, and emphasis on getting out their base in states like Alabama is myopic, because their base is nowhere near large enough. When they do well with their base, like last night, they can get a couple of percent more votes from a couple of percent more voters - but since that's squeezing blood out of a very small, thoroughly-squeezed-already rock, they can't get any significant progress in the polls from doing that. The good black vote last night gave Jones maybe an extra percent, maybe two, in the final vote - great, but to win, he needed about an extra 15 percent compared to other Democrats in Senate races and Presidential races in Alabama in recent years. That 15% of the vote didn't come from black women, because they were only 17% of the vote, and they always vote heavily Democratic anyway, so they couldn't add much to the failed coalition.

The biggest area where Jones did seem to make catastrophic inroads into republican support was among young white voters. In 2012, for example, Obama - a candidate who in general outperformed with younger voters - got 48% of the under-30 vote in Alabama; Jones just got 61%. That's a huge swing in a big demographic, and the sort of swing Democrats elsewhere need to emulate. And that swing was almost all from white voters (because young black voters were already turning out and were already voting Democrat).

Does that mean that the win is "owed" to white voters rather than black ones? No, because that misunderstands how democracy works. Everyone has to turn out to make a winning coalition. The prize doesn't go to the first one in the line, or to the last one in the line. There is no vote that puts the winner over the top, because all votes are simultaneous, and tallied individually. Jones needed all of his coalition, of both races. Was his win due to Democrats, because 98% of them voted for him? Or was it due to the 8% of Republicans who were willing to vote for a Democrat in Alabama? And the 51% of independents? Well, it was due to all of them.

Quote:
the DNC learned enough from Clinton's loss to put almost all the money earmarked for this race into GOTV efforts for Black and young voters.

That's not because they thought black voters were more important. It's because they were scared of doing GOTV for white voters, because they thought that might boost the turnout of white Republicans as well. This was a weird election, in that, for all that the Democrats needed to get their voters out to the polls, the most critical factor was probably suppressing the turnout of Republicans (Jones didn't win because Republicans swung to Democrats, although some did; Jones won because a lot of Republicans didn't vote).
Quote:
Predictably, White women once again put party above predation: Two-thirds backed Moore.
White women aren't a single person, and they don't vote as a block. Yes, lots of white women backed Moore. But it's also true to say that white women fled Moore at unprecedented rates. Splitting up the electorate in these crude, race-and-gender-based ways gives a misleading idea of how real people vote, depending on which category you arbitrarily shuffle them into. Yes, 2/3rds of white women backed Moore. Or you could say: 66% of mothers living with minors in their home backed Jones.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:41 pm 
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Axiem wrote:
If anything, this may light a fire under the Republicans to get in place their fix for the 2018 election even sooner and with more force.

Hopefully it will light a similar fire under Democrats to put voter suppression at the very top of the list of things they should be worrying about.

Native Silver has a good read on what this election presages for 2018. He factors out a 30 percentage point swing for Jones in the election and attributes about a third of it to the current political situation (e.g. net -20 pt approval ratings for Trump), a third to Moore being a Tea Party wingnut, and a third to his creeping on teenagers.

The last of these is probably the least reproducible. (To quote Ezra Klein, "We can’t trust that all unfit demagogues will turn out to be predators.") But given how week the GOP is right now, there are probably a lot more populist insurgent candidates coming down the pike even the Bannon insurgency doesn't amount to much. And it's really hard to see what might change the first of these. There's a clear trend line for Trump's performance polls and it ain't at all good and Congressional Republicans are apparently about the only people who think that their "major legislative victory" is something to celebrate.


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